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Framework for biodiversity Reconciliation Action Plans |
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Work Package 8: Management and viability of target species
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Main Objectives
• To assess the viability of the selected vertebrate species under
different
management scenarios;
• To integrate viability analysis and population monitoring into the
framework for
reconciliation action plans.
Description of work and methodologies
We will use a new approach by combining population viability analysis
(PVA) with power analysis of time trends in abundance. We will analyse
the effects of various management scenarios to regulate populations of
the modelled species in the vicinity of commercially important fishing
grounds respectively fishponds. We will use individual based models
since these models are extremely flexible and allow an explicit linkage
to landscapes. In individual-based models the state variables of all
individuals are updated in each time step one by one according to the
model rules and parameters. Model rules and parameters will be based on
a collation of published and unpublished data on the demography of the
target species, on abundance data provided by WP 2. Management
scenarios will be derived from the stakeholder analysis in WP 6.
We will combine the PVA analysis with a power analysis of time trends
in abundance to design adequate monitoring schemes for regulated
populations. We will analyse after which time delay declines in the
target species can be detected under different monitoring schemes.
Declines will be simulated based on the management scenarios used for
the viability analysis. We will take into account the time it takes
from detection of a decline until it is halted for different monitoring
and management schemes. Using our PVA models we will estimate the
additional extinction risk for various levels of intensity of the
monitoring schemes and of precautionary management (To act early when
decline is not yet proven or only when it is proven beyond doubt?). The
results will be translated into a framework for reconciliation action
plans including the models for the target species.
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